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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecast that liquids supply from North, Central and South America will rise by 1.66 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, even as it projects OPEC production will fall by 5.36 mb/d over the same period, according to EIAs October Short-Term Energy Outlook.
The outlook highlights a shift in where new oil supply is expected to come from, with growth concentrated in the Americas while several Middle East supply routes face disruption risks and chokepoints that affect shipping lanes.
What the forecast says
EIAs October outlook projects that Americas liquids supply will grow by 1.29 mb/d in 2024 and 1.49 mb/d in 2025, before reaching a forecast increase of 1.66 mb/d in 2026. In parallel, EIA expects OPEC production to decline by 5.36 mb/d in 2026, and it forecasts a drop of 1.22 mb/d from non-OPEC Middle East producers (including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman), using EIAs STEO data and related tables.
The broader framing in the reporting emphasizes that when some Gulf flows and transit routes become less reliable, additional barrels in the Western Hemisphere may help cushion global supply.
Why shipping chokepoints matter
The analysis links supply dynamics to chokepoints that concentrate global seaborne oil trade. It notes that, before the war, about 20 mb/d of oil (roughly a quarter of seaborne trade) moved through the Strait of Hormuz, citing an International Energy Agency (IEA) factsheet. EIA estimates Hormuz flows fell from 21.6 mb/d in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 4.9 mb/d in the second quarter of 2026.
The reporting also points to rerouting impacts, including Bab el-Mandeb flows rising to 8.1 mb/d in the second quarter of 2026 as Saudi barrels were rerouted via the East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea, citing EIA and Rigzone. It further notes IEA concerns about renewed attacks around Bab el-Mandeb and references an IEA report connected to the September bombing of Saudi Arabias East-West Pipeline.
Country-by-country: where the Americas gains are expected
United States
EIA forecasts U.S. liquids will rise by 0.67 mb/d to 24.39 mb/d in 2026. The reporting also cites a U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) lease sale, describing 59 blocks receiving high bids totaling 82.7 million in August.
Brazil and Guyana
For Brazil, the forecast is an added 0.61 mb/d in 2026, with the reporting referencing Petrobras commissioning of the 180,000 b/d P-79 project on May 1 (three months earlier than planned), which lifts Buzios capacity to about 1.33 mb/d.
For Guyana, the reporting describes rapid production growth--from zero in 2019 to about 900,000 b/d currently from four Exxon-operated floating production storage and offloading vessels (FPSOs). It states that a fifth FPSO, the 250,000 b/d Errea Wittu at Uaru, is targeted for start-up in 4Q26, with additional capacity from other projects expected to extend gains through the late 2020s.
Canada and Argentina
EIA forecasts Canada will add 0.13 mb/d in 2026. The reporting cites record throughput of 840,000 b/d reported by Trans Mountain Pipeline in Q2 2026, at 94% of roughly 890,000 b/d capacity.
For Argentina, EIA places liquids at 1.08 mb/d in 2026, up 0.10 mb/d. The reporting references YPF figures on Vaca Muerta output and describes planned export pipeline capacity and an export start-up timeline that has slipped to December 2026, with the first export cargo expected in March 2027.
The other side of the ledger: Middle East and Africa risks
The reporting characterizes the key issue in the Gulf not as lack of capacity, but as the ability to get oil out reliably when disruptions affect shipping and infrastructure. It notes that Saudi Aramco has said it can sustain 12 mb/d of maximum capacity, and it describes the UAEs plans to expand capacity by 2027 and to fast-track a pipeline intended to bypass Hormuz.
For Africa, it cites Nigerian crude and condensate averages below a stated 2.5 mb/d 2026 target, while describing expectations for non-OPEC African liquids growth led by Angola and Egypt. It also references EIAs view that non-OPEC African producers overall will grow by only 0.05 mb/d in 2026.
What this could mean for prices and energy security
EIAs outlook also includes commodity price projections. The reporting states EIA forecasts regular gasoline averaging 3.90 per gallon in 2026 (up from 3.10 in 2025) and diesel averaging 5.20 per gallon in 2026 (up from 3.66 in 2025). It also notes that relief is forecast rather than assured, because the projected changes depend on continued recovery of Gulf flows.
For investors and industry planning, the article emphasizes the importance of execution timelines for specific projects mentioned in the reporting, including first oil targets for Guyana-linked FPSO start-ups and start-up timing for export infrastructure.
Context for development stakeholders
While the forecast is an energy-market assessment, it is relevant to development practitioners because shifts in oil supply routes and freight chokepoints can affect fuel availability and prices, with downstream impacts on household costs, transport, and the operating environment for essential services. The reporting frames the Americas forecast growth as part of a larger question of energy security and resilience when shipping lanes are disrupted.
Caveats to the forecast
The reporting includes limitations consistent with commodity forecasting. It notes that the 2026 numbers are forecasts from EIAs STEO (dated October 6, 2026) and related monthly reports from the IEA and OPEC, and that figures are subject to revision. It also emphasizes that the agencies define regions differently, and that liquids include crude, condensate, NGLs and biofuels, with the composition of growth varying by region.
Key Details
Initiative or programme: EIA forecast for liquids supply growth and OPEC production changes (energy market outlook)
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