📋 Tender Overview
Adverse weather and the uncleared bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz continued to impact commodity market developments in the first session of the week (August 31). While natural gas prices increased more than 1.6% thanks to accelerating demand for cooling and US LNG exports, rubber prices also maintained a green color when heavy rain hindered exploitation activities in Southeast Asia and high oil prices. Closing the session, buying power prevailed, pulling the MXV-Index up 0.6%, to 2,950 points. Download Natural gas price is approaching the peak in July, approaching the mark of 3 USD/MMBtu. According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), closing yesterdays trading session, NYMEX natural gas futures prices in October increased by 1.63%, to 2.94 USD/MMBtu, when hot weather forecast continues to support cooling demand in the US, while gas flow to LNG plants recovers after the maintenance period. According to NatGasWeather, the weather pattern is significantly hotter than normal and is forecast to last for the next 6-7 days, thereby continuing to support gas demand for power generation. Besides weather factors, inventory movements are also being paid attention to by the market. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the amount of natural gas in US storage in the week ending August 21 increased by 15 Bcf, to 3,184 Bcf. This increase is significantly below the five-year average of 33 Bcf, while inventories are currently 167 Bcf above the five-year average and 30 Bcf below the same period last year. In the South Central region of the United States alone, the amount of gas in storage decreased by 19 Bcf, of which salt storage decreased by 20 Bcf. Download The low inventory replenishment rate occurs in the context that gas demand in some areas of the US remains high due to hot weather. According to data from the international market, the South Central region continues to be affected by strong cooling demand, while gas supply to LNG plants also recovers. These factors contributed to a decrease in the amount of gas added to storage in the latest week. Regarding export activities, gas flows to US LNG plants increased again after the Freeport LNG liquefaction and export facility completed a maintenance period lasting about two months on August 27. Data cited by Bloomberg shows that gas demand for LNG exports has increased to its highest level since the end of June. Freeport and Corpus Christi facilities together contributed to the recovery of gas supply flows in the last days of August. Meanwhile, the world natural gas market continues to be under pressure from LNG supply disruptions in the Middle East. TTF benchmark natural gas prices in Europe on August 31 increased by more than 5%, exceeding 70 EUR/MWh and reaching the highest level since January 2023. ICE Exchange data shows that the October contract was at times up to 70.85 EUR/MWh. The increase occurred in the context of renewed fighting between the US and Iran, increasing concerns about the possibility of LNG supply from the Gulf region continuing to be interrupted when LNG transportation activities through the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled. LNG gas prices are also high in the context of Europe and Asia competing for supply. According to information from international sources, LNG prices in Europe have increased to about 22.83 USD/MMBtu, the highest level since January 2023 and more than double the same period last year. This situation occurs when LNG transportation through Hormuz is limited and European gas reserves are replenished more slowly than usual. However, abundant natural gas supply in the US is still a factor limiting price increases. Lower 48 gas production in August remained high, in the range of 111-113 Bcf/day according to market data published at the end of the month. Meanwhile, the market also watched as the Hugh Brinson pipeline began bringing gas from the Waha area to east Texas. According to Energy Transfer, the first phase of the project has a capacity of about 1.5 Bcf/day, while the maximum capacity of about 2.2 Bcf/day will only be achieved when implementing the second phase. In the futures market, the latest data from CFTC shows that the selling pressure of speculators has somewhat eased. As of August 25, the group of investment funds (Managed Money) still maintained a net selling position of 71,673 NYMEX natural gas contracts, but the net selling level has narrowed by about 28,400 contracts compared to a week ago, mainly because the number of selling contracts decreased by more than 24,500. Meanwhile, the total net short position of the non-commercial investor group also decreased by about 5,600 contracts, down to 197,932 contracts. In general, US natural gas prices in the August 31 session were supported by prolonged hot weather, low inventory replenishment rate and the recovery of gas demand for LNG exports. Heavy rain in major production areas supports rubber prices. According to MXV, the industrial raw materials group moved in sync with the general market yesterday. Closing the first session of the week, rubber attracted attention when both key commodities recorded a slight increase. This trend continues to be supported by tight supply in major producing countries, while demand increases in the context of prolonged geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Regarding supply, although the Southeast Asia region has entered the peak tapping season, prolonged periods of heavy rain continuously cause prices to rise.During the exploitation progress, the actual raw latex output did not meet expectations. A similar situation also occurs in Chinas domestic production regions such as Hainan and Yunnan. Heavy rain forces processing factories to step up the collection of raw materials for reserve, causing spot supply in the market to be significantly tightened. Notably, Thailand - the worlds largest rubber growing and exporting country has not yet escaped the decline in exports in recent months. In t
