📋 Tender Overview
The project had the cooperation of the Universidad Catolica San Pablo (UCSP) of Arequipa and the National Meteorological Service (SMN) of Argentina. Results were presented at a closing workshop. This Monday, July 22, the Ministry of the Environment (MINAM), through the Geophysical Institute of Peru (IGP), announced the results of the project Detection and automatic characterization of volcanic explosions as a support tool in the mitigation of their effects. in the population: Sabancaya volcano case, which was financed by Prociencia del Concytec and which has allowed the implementation of an innovative volcanic monitoring system for erupting volcanoes.
Developed in cooperation with the San Pablo Catholic University (UCSP) of Arequipa and the National Meteorological Service (SMN) of Argentina, the new system uses artificial intelligence techniques to identify volcanic explosions automatically, a task that is carried out with a success rate 94%, which makes it a crucial tool for monitoring and mitigating the risks associated with volcanic activity in Peru, as well as for the generation of timely information for the benefit of the communities near the Sabancaya volcano.
Notable achievements of the project also include the development of a model that identifies volcanic ash in images of the volcano captured by IGP video cameras, with an accuracy of 98%. In addition, another model that allows determining the size of explosions using only seismic and meteorological data, with an accuracy of 91% for small explosions and 68% for large explosions.
The academic impact of the project is also notable, since it has achieved the publication of a scientific article in the prestigious Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, in addition to the support of an undergraduate thesis at the National University of San Agustin (UNSA) of Arequipa. .
How does the system work?
The system collects seismic signals generated by the Sabancaya eruption, acquired in real time by the IGP geophysical network on the volcano. These signals are automatically analyzed to discriminate their origin (rock breakage, fluid movement or explosions with ash emissions). Through a multiparametric model, explosions are validated, confirmed and characterized almost in real time. Additionally, meteorological and visual information is collected to predict the dispersion of the ash plume and the possible radius of impact.
Riky Centeno, principal investigator and coordinator of the project, explains that the system and models developed strengthen the work of the IGP volcanologist experts in data processing and analysis. Every day we detect hundreds of seismic signals linked to the eruptive activity of Sabancaya that must be processed in real time. The system will contribute to this. This is the starting point to replicate these models on the Ubinas volcano and other active volcanoes in the country, he mentions.
For his part, Hernando Tavera, executive president of the IGP, highlights that the early identification of explosions with emissions of volcanic ash and the forecast of the direction of dispersion in real time will impact the issuance of better alerts. This will benefit the SINAGERD authorities and the communities surrounding Sabancaya that could be affected. As IGP, we generate science that allows for better disaster risk management, he adds.
The results of the project were presented in the vicinity of the College of Engineers in Arequipa, with the participation of authorities from the Regional Government of Arequipa, INDECI, district municipalities and university students.
